Four teams. Two games. Two tickets to the 113th Grey Cup.
The Canadian Football League playoffs have already delivered enough drama to make a Hollywood screenwriter blush, and Saturday’s division finals promise more of the same.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers are attempting to become the first crossover team to reach the Grey Cup, while the Montreal Alouettes are defending an unbeaten home record.
Out West, the BC Lions and Edmonton Elks are looking to end championship-game droughts stretching back to 2011 and 2015, respectively.
History offers an interesting contrast. Eastern Final hosts have won just once in five years, while Western Final home teams are a perfect 5–0.
Of course, history doesn’t make tackles.
Eastern Final: Winnipeg Blue Bombers at Montreal Alouettes
Saturday, November 7 | 3 p.m. ET / 9 p.m. CET
Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal
The Blue Bombers weren’t supposed to be here.
Not after crossing over from the West. Not after losing Zach Collaros to injury. And certainly not when elimination loomed against the Toronto Argonauts.
Then Dru Brown found Nic Demski for a late touchdown, and suddenly Winnipeg was celebrating a stunning 25–22 victory.
Now comes the hard part.
Winnipeg needs to control the clock
The Bombers have already beaten Montreal this season, and the blueprint wasn’t complicated.
Brady Oliveira rushed for more than 100 yards, Ontaria Wilson caught two touchdowns, and Winnipeg prevented the Alouettes from establishing their ground game.
That formula must work again.
Whether Brown starts or Collaros returns, Oliveira needs to keep the offense out of obvious passing situations.
A sold-out Percival Molson Memorial Stadium won’t help matters. The Bombers committed 11 penalties during their previous visit, including two before the snap.
Montreal has too many weapons
The biggest concern for the Alouettes might be rust.
After resting key players and enjoying a playoff bye, Davis Alexander and company could need time to rediscover their rhythm.
But once Montreal’s offense gets rolling, containing it becomes an entirely different proposition.
Winnipeg has the experience and toughness to make things uncomfortable. What it probably lacks is enough firepower to survive four quarters against a rested Montreal team.
The crossover fairy tale has been entertaining. Unfortunately, every fairy tale eventually encounters a villain.
Prediction: Montreal Alouettes 30, Winnipeg Blue Bombers 20
Western Final: BC Lions at Edmonton Elks
Saturday, November 7 | 6:30 p.m. ET / 12:30 a.m. CET Sunday
Commonwealth Stadium, Edmonton
The Western Final looks considerably more difficult to predict.
The Lions have Nathan Rourke, arguably the most dangerous quarterback remaining in the playoffs.
The Elks have the league’s most opportunistic defense, a veteran quarterback and home-field advantage.
Something has to give.
Rourke versus Edmonton’s defense
The Lions appeared headed for elimination after falling 14 points behind Saskatchewan.
Then Rourke unleashed touchdown passes of 69 and 70 yards, turning the game upside down.
That’s the problem with defending BC. You can play outstanding football for 55 minutes and still lose because Rourke makes two extraordinary throws.
But Edmonton presents a different challenge.
The Elks forced 53 turnovers during the regular season, converting them into 178 points.
With Malik Carney disrupting opposing quarterbacks, BC must establish its running game or risk turning Rourke into a full-time escape artist.
Why Edmonton gets the nod
Cody Fajardo understands that playoff football often comes down to avoiding the mistake that ends your season.
Justin Rankin provides a dangerous rushing threat against a BC defense that struggled early against Saskatchewan’s ground attack.
Then there’s the weather.
The Lions haven’t won an outdoor playoff game since 2008, losing 10 straight away from BC Place.
Rourke is talented enough to end that streak, but Edmonton’s defense, running game and home-field advantage make the Elks a dangerous opponent.
Expect a bruising contest decided by one crucial turnover or a late field goal.
Prediction: Edmonton Elks 27, BC Lions 24
Our Grey Cup matchup: Montreal versus Edmonton
We’re backing the Alouettes to end Winnipeg’s historic crossover bid and the Elks to spoil BC’s championship dreams.
That would set up a fascinating Grey Cup showdown in Calgary between Montreal’s explosive offense and Edmonton’s turnover-hungry defense.
And if both predictions go completely sideways?
Well, that’s why they play the games.