How You Can Use Analytics in Super Bowl Betting

While the focus is on the field as the thrills and spills of a Super Bowl match unfolds, for a lot of people there is more to the game than just who is crowned champion. The Super Bowl is one of the biggest single sporting events in the world for the number of bets placed on it.

It’s up there with the likes of the FIFA World Cup Final, the Rugby World Cup Final markets found at the best UK rugby betting sites and the Kentucky Derby. The Super Bowl is a huge deal for NFL bettors, with almost a sense of pride in getting the calls on this one-off fixture spot on more so than in any other match.

But what are the key analytics to look at for making Super Bowl betting picks? It is just as challenging as making a call on other matches. For the nuts and bolts of NFL betting it is no different in that regard. But the pressures of the day that individual players are under and the unpredictable in-match events can all throw a spanner in the betting works.

This is why punters heavily turn to analytics to help make informed Super Bowl betting picks.

Team Performance

You have to break down the current form of the teams involved in the Super Bowl. But a lot of punters fall into the trap of only really diving into the stats of one particular team. Doing that then creates a bias, because of what you are seeing, being skewed to a pre-existing preference as a lot of data points are missing.

The performances, defense and offense of both teams have to be scoured over and of course, matched against one another. You are looking for fine margins in key areas, like yards gained and red zone efficiency. Break down the season records of the two teams involved. There’s no shortcut here. Do the background work.

Quarterback performances are a massive niche of this. As the cornerstone of the team, compare the two Super Bowl starting QBs in areas like completion percentage, passing yards and on the other side, interceptions. There’s no pressure like that faced by a quarter-back in the Super Bowl. Look deeper into the analytics of how QBs handle big-game moments by pulling a narrow focus into playoff performances.

Making the Match Up

Historical data should be looked at between the two teams. You may be able to spot some trends there, as long as there have been recent duels. If there haven’t been any really recent meetings, then some of the head-to-head can be taken with a pinch of salt.

After all, the match is generally on neutral territory and both teams playing in the Super Bowl are obviously in a good spot. Previous head-to-head results could be under very different circumstances.

Historical Super Bowl Trends

You can look beyond the actual teams playing and just take a good overview of Super Bowl trends. You can break down previous results, such as how many recent winners had come through the playoffs as a divisional champion, or were a surprise wild-card winner.

Looking for success rates of similar-styled teams can be useful as well. How well have high-scoring offense-minded teams won through on the day? Have they had an advantage over defense-minded teams in Super Bowl fixtures?

Results from previous Super Bowls also are great not only for predicting the winner but for spreads and totals.

Look at the Betting Lines

This is something that should already be understood by a punter. The best approach is to watch the NFL Super Bowl betting lines a good amount of time out from the actual kick-off. Public sentiment is a good thing to watch.

Vast numbers of people, all pulling information in from stats and pundits are going to be betting on the game, which shifts the markets. Look for shifting trends from all of the sharp action happening on the Super Bowl moneyline and spread.

Follow the Averages

There are always going to be outliers in any kind of analytics that you look at. Maybe it was a one-sided result like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blowing away the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV or the Seattle Seahawks’ 43-8 triumph over the Denver Broncos in Super Bowl XLVIII.

Don’t be swayed by putting a huge emphasis on such anomalies. The 2021 and 2022 Super Bowls for example were both settled by just three points. Big outliers don’t have a big effect on the overall averages, and that is where the sweet spot resides.

Look for averages overall as your baseline in any analytics for Super Bowl betting picks and work from there.