Less than 48 hours away from Super Bowl 54 between the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs (3:30 PM ET, Sunday, Feb. 2nd), bettors have had ample time to weigh in on the point spread, money-line, and game total. The majority of the money that will be bet on the game is still sitting in bettors’ wallets, but the early action has been substantial enough to move the some of the lines.
Here’s where things stand as of Friday morning, along with where one industry expert believes the odds are likely to move before kickoff.
Money-line
The money-line odds for the game – i.e. the odds on which team will win the game, regardless of margin of victory – currently favor the Chiefs.
According to the latest Super Bowl odds, Kansas City opened as a -123 favorite and has gotten marginally shorter in the ten days since, now sitting at -125. If you have difficulty reading these types of odds, then this basic bet types guide explains the moneyline and against the spread in a user-friendly way.
The 49ers opened at +103 and have moved an equal amount in the other direction, currently +105 underdogs.
The odds suggest that Kansas City has a 55.6% chance to win, while San Francisco has a 48.8% chance.
Point Spread
Most sports-books opened the point spread at Kansas City -1.0. The line briefly moved to KC -1.5 but it is back to -1.0 almost universally.
Most predictive models agree that this is a close matchup but that the Chiefs should be small favorites. That includes ProFootballFocus’ Greenline projections and FootballOutsiders’ odds report.
Game Total
The total (also known as the over/under) has seen the most movement so far. It opened at 51.5 and the over was hit hard by both sharp bettors (the industry nickname for professionals) and the public (everyone else), leading to the total ballooning all the way to 55.0
Paruk notes that we are starting to see some buy-back on the under, to the point that most sports-books now have the total at 54.0 or 54.5 at the highest.
The reason why the over was getting all the early money is pretty obvious. The game will feature two of the highest-scoring teams in the league, including a KC offense that has averaged 43.0 points per game in the postseason.
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What Will the Odds Be at Game-Time?
As mentioned, the majority of the betting handle for Super Bowl 54 has yet to be wagered. It will come in during the 36 hours prior to kickoff.
Paruk believes that the line is likely to move in favor of Kansas City at first, but then come back to the 49ers in the hour(s) right before the start of the game. He notes that the “public” – meaning non-sharp bettors – are favoring the Chiefs, while the sharp money is trending to the Niners.
This isn’t classified knowledge, so professional bettors looking to back the 49ers are probably going to wait until more public money comes in, hoping to see the spread rise higher than a point before making their big bets on the game.
When the pros do weigh in, that’s when the line is likely to shift towards San Francisco.
There’s a decent chance that Super Bowl 54 winds up being just the second pick’em game in Super Bowl history (following Patriots vs Seahawks in Super Bowl 49).