Patriots No Longer Super Bowl Favorites

About six weeks ago, we explored how the betting odds for Super Bowl 54 had turned into the New England Patriots vs the field.

In early October, the Patriots were +300 favorites, while not other team was shorter than Kansas City at +600.

Today, with exceedingly strong play from Baltimore, San Francisco, and New Orleans, the odds look significantly different. In fact, the Patriots aren’t even favored. These odds are subject to change which is why it’s useful to know what these recommended sports-books (link) suggest after the thanksgiving games get under way.

Here’s where the top-five stand currently.

Super Bowl 54 Odds: Nov. 27

  • Baltimore Ravens: +300
  • New England Patriots: +325
  • San Francisco 49ers: +500
  • New Orleans Saints: +600
  • Kansas City Chiefs: +1000

Baltimore Ravens: +300

The Ravens have been putting the boots to all comers lately, becoming the first team to record 34-plus-point victories in back to back weeks against teams over .500. Their +184 point differential is now one point better than the Pats, who were on a record-breaking pace earlier in the year.

They remain a game behind New England in the race for top seed in the AFC, but they don’t have a daunting schedule down the stretch (their final four games are against the Bills, Jets, Browns, and Steelers) and they own the tiebreaker with New England thanks to a head-to-head win. If they finish a game better than the Patriots in the last five weeks, they will claim top spot in the AFC.

San Francisco 49ers: +500

The Niners are tied for the best record in the NFL at 10-1 and have looked as dominant as any team in the league in certain weeks. But they lag behind the Ravens and Patriots for two main reasons: (1) they are in the stronger NFC, and (2) they have been inconsistent. They nearly lost to the 3-7-1 Cardinals twice in the last four weeks, and also lost to the Seahawks at home in that span.

Their +169 point difference is almost as good as Baltimore’s, but their offense is considerably less dynamic. Baltimore ranks first in FootballOutsider’s offensive efficiency metric, while San Francisco is only 11th.

New Orleans Saints: +600

Apart from a couple blips, the 9-2 Saints have lived up to their status as preseason NFC favorites. While their two losses – to the Rams and Falcons – certainly don’t look great, they also had to navigate five weeks without starting QB Drew Brees, and they own quality victories over Houston, Seattle, and Dallas, three teams that would be in the playoffs if the season ended today.

They have a crucial game against the 49ers in two weeks’ time, a meeting that will likely decide the #1 seed in the NFC. They’ll be favored at home, and they are extremely tough to beat at the Superdome, especially in the postseason.

AFI
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