There are easier ways to lose money than using my NFL predictions as betting advice. Most casinos have thoughtfully placed machines near the entrance, while airports will exchange currency for you at rates that achieve much the same result with less reading.
My Week 1 selections were produced by a secret weighting system that rewards international players, international marketing rights, multilingual broadcasts and a few other factors which may or may not include Ohio State alumni and the price of beer. The underlying theory remains that internationally minded teams will fare better.
Week 1 offered mixed support for that theory and fairly convincing evidence that I should not be handling anyone else’s retirement account.
The painful Week 1 review
The final record was 7-9. A coin could have gone 8-8 without spending an evening turfing foreign-born players or checking whether a club broadcasts its games in Spanish.
The system correctly selected Cincinnati, Detroit, Pittsburgh, the New York Jets, Arizona, the New York Giants and Kansas City. Detroit needed overtime to beat New Orleans 31-30, while Washington came within two points of making the record look slightly respectable. Kansas City at least had the decency to remove all suspense from its 31-10 win over Denver.
The misses were more memorable. Cleveland, my strongest selection, lost 34-10 to Jacksonville. Carolina conceded 59 points to Chicago. The Rams crossed the Pacific and scored seven. Indianapolis, another supposedly strong pick, allowed Baltimore 502 yards in a 41-23 defeat. Miami lost by 14, Green Bay by 17 and New England completed the opening-night collapse by throwing interceptions on its final three possessions.
To complete the humiliation, all 16 games were decided by different margins. The NFL apparently devoted an entire week to finding new and creative ways of informing me that the formula needs work. It has now been adjusted, although explaining how would expose the science to unnecessary ridicule.
Week 2 predictions
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills
The international angle could hardly be more obvious. Buffalo opens the new Highmark Stadium by playing both national anthems, with Canada’s Barenaked Ladies handling O Canada. The Lions counter with American Samoa-born tackle Penei Sewell, Egypt-born defensive lineman Ahmed Hassanein and international marketing rights across Canada, Brazil and central Europe.
The football factor is Detroit’s offensive line and Jahmyr Gibbs, who ran for 156 yards against New Orleans. Buffalo survived a 36-31 shootout in Houston, but another game played at Josh Allen speed gives Detroit opportunities to control the fourth quarter on the ground.
Pick: Detroit Lions
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
Philadelphia brings Australian tackle Jordan Mailata, Zimbabwe-born defensive back Andrew Mukuba and marketing rights in Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and Ghana. Tennessee answers with Canadian receiver Elic Ayomanor and links to Ireland and the United Kingdom.
The deciding football factor is Philadelphia’s defensive front against an offense that managed only 10 points against the Jets. Tennessee should be better at home, but the Eagles have more ways to win when the game becomes untidy.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
Both organizations take international work seriously. New England operates in Germany, Austria, Switzerland and Brazil. Pittsburgh has built connections in Germany, Mexico, Ireland and Northern Ireland. This is a draw on the passport portion of the card.
The football factor is T.J. Watt against a New England offense that disappeared after taking a 10-0 lead in Seattle. Watt produced two sacks and returned an interception for a touchdown in Pittsburgh’s opener. Asking Drake Maye to repair his confidence with Watt in the building seems impolite.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Chicago fields one of the NFL’s most international groups, including Brazilian kicker Cairo Santos, Australian punter Tory Taylor, Canadians Theo Benedet and Neville Gallimore and South African defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg. Minnesota counters with commercial rights in Canada and the United Kingdom.
The football factor is Chicago’s ground game against Brian Flores’ aggressive defense. The Bears ran for 291 yards and six touchdowns in Week 1. Minnesota scored 39 against Green Bay, so anyone hoping for a quiet Sunday afternoon should choose another game.
Pick: Chicago Bears
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
Both teams claim Germany in the NFL Global Markets Program, which creates the international equivalent of a scoreless tie. Carolina has more internationally born players, but last week’s formula learned that passports do not tackle D’Andre Swift.
The football factor is Bijan Robinson. He accounted for 173 yards from scrimmage against Pittsburgh and now faces a Carolina defense that allowed Chicago 291 yards on the ground. Atlanta’s quarterback uncertainty remains uncomfortable, but Robinson offers the simplest route out of it.
Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets
Irish punter Daniel Whelan gives Green Bay an on-field connection to one of its international markets. The Jets also work in Ireland and the United Kingdom and feature Nigeria-born defensive tackle David Onyemata and an American Samoan link through the Mauigoa family.
The deciding football factor is the Jets defense, which allowed Tennessee only 195 total yards. Green Bay must show it can protect the football and handle a fast front after Minnesota turned the opener into a 39-22 track meet.
Pick: New York Jets
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans holds international rights in France and Italy, two of Europe’s longest-running American football countries. Baltimore has spent years in the United Kingdom and fields Melbourne-born lineman Daniel Faalele.
The football factor is Baltimore’s rushing attack. Lamar Jackson threw for 324 yards in Week 1 and Derrick Henry scored three times. The Saints took Detroit to overtime, but solving both Jackson and Henry with four days of film is a different assignment.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans
Cincinnati’s international territory is Canada. Houston works in Mexico and has a roster that includes Jamaica-born pass rusher Danielle Hunter. The Texans also possess enough Ohio State influence to keep the secret formula interested.
The football factor is Houston’s pass rush against Joe Burrow. Cincinnati scored 33 in Week 1, but kicker Evan McPherson supplied 15 of those points. The Texans cannot trade field goals with Burrow all afternoon. They need to shorten his clock and force one late mistake. Nico Collins’ hamstring makes this selection considerably less comfortable.
Pick: Houston Texans
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cleveland works internationally in Italy and Nigeria. Tampa Bay holds rights in Germany, Austria and Switzerland and features Belize-born defensive lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches.
The football evidence says Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers scored 27 in Cincinnati, while Cleveland managed 10 points and allowed Trevor Lawrence four touchdown passes. I am nevertheless returning to the Browns because the roster contains six Ohio State players, the beer is comparatively affordable and stubbornness remains an underappreciated part of forecasting.
The actual football path is Myles Garrett wrecking the game before Baker Mayfield can settle in. If that does not happen, please forward all complaints to the formula.
Pick: Cleveland Browns
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Jacksonville’s long relationship with the United Kingdom has expanded into Ireland, while Welsh rugby convert Louis Rees-Zammit remains one of the league’s most closely watched crossover players. Denver’s principal international market is Mexico.
The football factor is Trevor Lawrence against a Denver offense that produced only 10 points in Kansas City. Lawrence threw four touchdown passes against Cleveland. The altitude matters, but it cannot score for the Broncos.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Las Vegas has one of the league’s broadest global portfolios, stretching from Mexico and the United Kingdom to Australia, New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates. The Chargers hold rights in Greece and have Hong Kong-born kicker Cameron Dicker.
The football factor is Ashton Jeanty. He touched the ball 29 times and produced 147 yards from scrimmage in the Raiders’ opening win. Arizona forced Justin Herbert and the Chargers into mistakes last week; Las Vegas can do the same by controlling possession and keeping Herbert on the sideline.
Pick: Las Vegas Raiders
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
Australian punter Michael Dickson and Seattle’s six international markets give the Seahawks a substantial global profile. Arizona counters with Danish center Hjalte Froholdt and rights in Canada and Mexico.
The deciding football factor is at quarterback. Sam Darnold is out, leaving Drew Lock to make his first start after rescuing the opener. Lock played well, but Arizona received 277 passing yards from Jacoby Brissett, four field goals from Chad Ryland and decisive plays from its defense and special teams against the Chargers.
Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Miami may win the international brochure contest with markets in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Spain. San Francisco works in Mexico, the United Kingdom and the United Arab Emirates and has a Canadian quarterback connection through Kurtis Rourke.
The football factor overwhelms the brochure. San Francisco traveled to Melbourne and held the Rams to seven points. Miami scored 13 in a two-touchdown loss to Las Vegas. The 49ers must manage the physical hangover from Australia, but their defensive front should control the game before fatigue becomes decisive.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
Washington’s international territory is the United Arab Emirates, and its roster includes American Samoa-born linebacker Frankie Luvu and Haiti-born defensive back Mike Sainristil. Dallas retains its deep commercial relationship with Mexico but has comparatively little international representation on the active roster.
The football factor is Jayden Daniels’ mobility against a Dallas defense that allowed the Giants 28 points. Washington lost by two in Philadelphia and showed enough to suggest that its remodeled defense can keep this close. Daniels must finish the drives the Commanders left on the field last week.
Pick: Washington Commanders
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
Indianapolis has Austrian tackle Bernhard Raimann and rights in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Kansas City owns seven international territories, the league’s joint-highest total, covering much of Europe and Mexico.
The football factor is the one that has spoiled more clever predictions than any spreadsheet can count: Patrick Mahomes at Arrowhead. Kansas City scored 31 in his return and Indianapolis allowed Baltimore 502 yards. The secret formula likes the Colts’ Notre Dame and Ohio State contingent. The eyes say Chiefs.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams possess seven international markets across Asia, Oceania, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates. The Giants counter with a genuinely international roster: Canadians Theo Johnson and Jevon Holland, American Samoa-born Francis Mauigoa and Nigerian lineman Basil Okoye.
The football factor is New York’s pass rush against a Rams offense that scored seven points in Melbourne. Los Angeles should benefit from returning home, but Aaron Donald’s status remains uncertain and the Giants already demonstrated that they can turn pressure into points against Dallas.
Pick: New York Giants
These are predictions, not betting advice. There are easier ways to lose money than following my picks. The NFL has spent decades making sure of it. The formula remains secret. After 7-9, this is less about protecting valuable intellectual property than protecting the identity of those responsible.