CFL Simulation: Saskatchewan Roughriders pegged as early Grey Cup favorites

TORONTO — Following an exciting trio of games during Mark’s Labour Day Weekend, the CFL Simulation has returned in time for the home stretch of the 2019 campaign.

The West has been shaken up quite a bit over the last few weeks. Following their sixth straight win, the Saskatchewan Roughriders were simulated to finish with a 12-6 record, be in the best position to walk away with the West division, host a playoff game, appear in the 107th Grey Cup and win the championship.

While Hamilton and Montreal look to be the two teams that have things locked down in the East, it was the Ticats who came out of each sim winning the division and hosting a playoff game. The Tabbies are also featured as the East’s representative in three of the five matchups for the 107th Grey Cup.

With their victory over the Edmonton Eskimos in Week 12 — not to mention the return of star pivot Bo Levi Mitchell — the Calgary Stampeders have hopped into the top five projected matchups for the Grey Cup.

While both sitting at 1-9, the windows for the Toronto Argonauts and BC Lions have all but closed. The Argos are coming off another heartbreaking loss at the hands of the Ticats while the Leos had a bye week. Each will be back in action in Week 13, with the Argos taking on the REDBLACKS and the Lions facing the Als.


The model considers the following:

  • Each team’s current win-loss record.
  • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
  • The margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
  • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
  • Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular-season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team).  For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 1,990/10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

Here’s a look at how all the teams stack up:

ODDS TO MAKE PLAYOFFS
Team (Projected 2019 record) Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (13-5) >99.99%
Saskatchewan Roughriders (12-6) 99.94%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (12-6) 99.91%
Calgary Stampeders (10-8) 98.15%
Montreal Alouettes (10-8) 97.14%
Edmonton Eskimos (9-9) 93.24%
Ottawa REDBLACKS (7-11) 10.90%
BC Lions (5-13) 0.65%
Toronto Argonauts (3-15) 0.07%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ODDS TO HOST PLAYOFF GAME
Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats >99.99%
Montreal Alouettes 96.12%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 81.90%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 81.39%
Calgary Stampeders 28.51%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 3.87%
BC Lions 0.01%
Toronto Argonauts 0.01%

ODDS TO WIN EAST
Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 90.00%
Montreal Alouettes 10.00%
Ottawa REDBLACKS <0.01%
Toronto Argonauts <0.01%

 

 

 

 

ODDS TO WIN WEST
Team Projection
Saskatchewan Roughriders 49.83%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 38.71%
Calgary Stampeders 1.26%
Edmonton Eskimos 1.20%
BC Lions <0.01%

ODDS TO APPEAR IN 107TH GREY CUP
Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 71.14%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 47.46%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 40.97%
Montreal Alouettes 20.50%
Calgary Stampeders 14.59%
Edmonton Eskimos 5.12%
Ottawa REDBLACKS 0.22%
BC Lions <0.01%
Toronto Argonauts <0.01%

ODDS TO WIN THE 107TH GREY CUP
Team Projection
Saskatchewan Roughriders 35.08%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 28.82%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 20.87%
Calgary Stampeders 8.34%
Montreal Alouettes 5.27%
Edmonton Eskimos 1.62%
Ottawa REDBLACKS <0.01%
BC Lions <0.01%
Toronto Argonauts <0.01%

MOST LIKELY MATCHUPS IN 107TH GREY CUP
Teams Projection
Saskatchewan-Hamilton 32.88%
Winnipeg-Hamilton 29.05%
Saskatchewan-Montreal 9.67%
Winnipeg-Montreal 8.09%
Calgary-Hamilton 7.94%
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