Fearless NFL Week 9 Predictions From Someone Who Should Know Better

Week 8 finished 10-4, lifting the season record to 64-56-1. We have now been above .500 for two consecutive weeks, which is exactly long enough for confidence to become a public-health concern. No parade has been scheduled, but the spreadsheet has started referring to itself in the third person.

The method will remain behind a locked door this week. It sounds far more impressive when nobody can hear it operating. We will stick to the useful parts: international angles, one deciding football factor, the current market and enough jokes to prevent anyone mistaking this for investment advice.

The painful Week 8 review

Green Bay, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Las Vegas, Detroit, Jacksonville, the Rams, New England and Washington did their jobs. Ten winners is dangerously respectable. Cincinnati needed overtime after allowing Tennessee 36 points, and Las Vegas surrendered 33 to the Jets, but style points are for figure skating and people who did not pick the Browns.

Dallas lost to Arizona, Kansas City lost in Denver and Seattle was flattened 34-17 by Chicago. Cleveland contributed the week’s deepest personal wound, losing 27-6 in Pittsburgh after I had once again asked what could go wrong. The answer remains available in hardcover, with additional volumes published every autumn since 1964.

Tennessee and Pittsburgh are off this week. The Giants are back, which means the Jameis Winston bus has left long-term parking. J.J. McCarthy may be driving, but nobody is touching the radio and the collection bucket remains near the front door.

Week 9 predictions

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

Jacksonville owns Ireland and the United Kingdom, while Baltimore also works the United Kingdom. This is a British civil war by proxy, staged in Maryland and sponsored by people who still cannot agree whether a punt return requires tea or something stronger.

The football factor is Baltimore’s quarterback room. Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley are out, leaving Joe Fagnano to start against a 5-2 Jacksonville team that just beat Indianapolis 42-7. The Jaguars are favored by 9.5. Thursday night has all the mystery of a customs form.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons in Madrid

The Bernabéu has hosted Real Madrid, European Cup finals and some of football’s most elegant performers. On Sunday it gets a neutral-zone infraction by a man the size of a tapas delivery van. Progress comes in many forms. Neither Cincinnati nor Atlanta owns the NFL’s Spanish market rights, so they are essentially borrowing somebody else’s villa for the weekend.

The football factor is recent output. Cincinnati scored 43 last week; Atlanta scored none. Joe Burrow and the Bengals have produced 20 passing touchdowns, while the Falcons have thrown 11 interceptions. Cincinnati is favored by 3.5. Madrid appreciates style, and Burrow has never required much encouragement in that department.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Cleveland has Italy and Nigeria. New Orleans has France and Italy. This is the NFL’s Italian custody hearing, with France and Nigeria waiting outside and wondering why every discussion has become emotional.

The football factor says New Orleans is rested and favored by 2.5, while Cleveland has allowed 33 sacks and has just scored six points. The emotional factor says the Browns are 5-3 and I have already paid for the ticket. What could go wrong has become less a question than a weekly subscription.

Pick: Cleveland Browns

Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts

Dallas owns Mexico. Indianapolis covers Austria, Germany and Switzerland. The Colts win the international map 3-1, which is good because their domestic map currently shows several roads ending at 2-6.

The football factor is Dallas having 25 offensive touchdowns to Indianapolis’ 15, with the Colts throwing only five touchdown passes against nine interceptions. The Cowboys are favored by 5.5. This is not trust in Dallas; it is an unwillingness to watch Indianapolis try to catch up.

Pick: Dallas Cowboys

Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers

Denver works in Mexico and Carolina in Germany. One market each, one continent each and no obvious diplomatic incident. This may be the week’s most orderly international comparison, so naturally the football will ruin it.

The football factor is Denver’s 6-2 record and a defense that has carried an offense still searching for a reliable map of the red zone. Carolina has lost four of seven and is coming off a Thursday defeat at Green Bay. The Broncos are favored by 2.5. Order wins.

Pick: Denver Broncos

Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

Detroit operates in five international markets; Miami has six stretching from Argentina to the United Kingdom. This is the global heavyweight bout, although Miami would prefer the weigh-in continue indefinitely.

The football factor is Detroit’s 203 points against a Miami team sitting at 1-6. The Lions just ended Minnesota’s unbeaten run, while the Dolphins have not held an opponent below 19. Detroit is favored by 6.5. South Florida provides the weather; Detroit provides the football team.

Pick: Detroit Lions

Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders

The Rams own seven markets across Australia, Asia, Mexico, New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates. Washington has the UAE. The Commanders have brought one passport to a trade delegation.

The football factor is a Rams offense with 25 touchdowns against a Washington defense that has allowed 182 points in seven games. Los Angeles is favored by 5.5 and has won two straight. The long flight is imaginary; the talent gap is not.

Pick: Los Angeles Rams

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia owns four international markets and employs Australian mountain Jordan Mailata. The Giants have Germany and the world’s most heavily mythologized backup quarterback. On paper the Eagles win the international comparison. Paper has never ridden the Jameis bus.

The football factor is Philadelphia turning to Joe Milton with Jalen Hurts unavailable and the Eagles sitting at 2-6. New York is 4-2-1, rested and favored by 3.5. No system in the world can top what is behind Jameis Winston. The bus is moving again and I am not asking where.

Pick: New York Giants

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs

The Jets have Ireland and the United Kingdom. Kansas City owns seven markets and could open an embassy before halftime. Internationally, this is less a contest than a very short summit.

The football factor is Kansas City returning home after consecutive losses to face a 2-6 Jets team. The Chiefs have thrown 12 touchdown passes with only four interceptions; the Jets have supplied far fewer reasons for optimism. Kansas City is favored by 9.5. This is the full thumb, wrist and sleeve.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers

Houston has Mexico and the Chargers have Greece. The matchup offers tacos, souvlaki and an 0-7 home team, which is one ingredient too many for a pleasant afternoon.

The football factor is Los Angeles going 27 consecutive offensive drives without a touchdown. The Chargers have thrown 10 interceptions and scored only nine offensive touchdowns all season. Houston is favored by 4.5. Even a 2-5 team eventually finds somebody who makes it feel better.

Pick: Houston Texans

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Arizona works in Canada and Mexico. Seattle owns six markets across Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. The Seahawks win the map 6-2 and may need every office to locate a healthy quarterback.

The football factor is Seattle’s defense and home field, but Sam Darnold is out and Drew Lock is expected to start. Arizona just won in Dallas and will not be intimidated by a market line. Seattle is still favored by 10.5, which feels less like confidence than a dare. I will take it, then hide.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots

Green Bay works in Germany, Ireland and the United Kingdom. New England covers Austria, Brazil, Germany and Switzerland. The Patriots win 4-3, while Irish punter Daniel Whelan appeals for a recount.

The football factor is two 5-3 teams separated by very little except the venue and New England’s edge in the market. The Patriots have 22 offensive touchdowns to Green Bay’s 20 and are favored by 2.5. Tom Brady returns to Gillette as a broadcaster, meaning at least one New England quarterback should look comfortable.

Pick: New England Patriots

Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers

Las Vegas owns six international markets; San Francisco has three. The Raiders win the passport count and can enjoy it during the bus ride across northern California.

The football factor is San Francisco being 6-1, rested and favored by 9.5. The 49ers have the league’s best passer rating and only seven sacks allowed, while Las Vegas has spent too much of the season trying to win 38-33. The Raiders travel well; the 49ers play better.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

Tampa Bay owns Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Chicago has Spain and the United Kingdom. The amusing part is that Chicago owns Spanish market rights while Cincinnati and Atlanta play in Madrid. International football is apparently organised by airline-upgrade rules.

The football factor is Chicago’s league-leading 17 rushing touchdowns against a Tampa Bay team that remains dangerous but inconsistent at 3-5. The Bears are 6-2 after scoring 34 in Seattle and are favored by 6.5. Chicago’s Spanish office can celebrate from Illinois.

Pick: Chicago Bears

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

Buffalo has Canada. Minnesota has Canada and the United Kingdom. The Vikings take the international count 2-1 and turn Monday night into a North Atlantic summit with shoulder pads.

The football factor is Buffalo’s 27 offensive touchdowns, including a league-leading 16 on the ground, against a Minnesota defense that has carried the Vikings to 6-1. Buffalo is also 6-1 and favored by 3.5. This is the week’s best game and therefore the one most likely to make me look foolish in public.

Pick: Buffalo Bills

Final warning

These predictions are not betting advice, financial advice or a valid reason to cancel a sensible Sunday. There are easier ways to lose money than following my picks, including stadium beer, Madrid hotel prices, airport exchange rates and contributing to the fuel fund on the Jameis bus. Use the column only to ridicule its author. The Browns pick is a pre-existing condition.