Mahnen’s Week 1 NFL picks: Passports, Buckeyes, beer prices and a secret formula

An entirely scientific system involving countries, passports and beer prices has already produced one wrong answer.

The NFL season is underway, which means it is time for fearless predictions from people who will spend the next four months quietly deleting the evidence.

Unfortunately, my first piece of evidence cannot be deleted. I picked New England to defeat Seattle in Wednesday night’s opener. The Seahawks won 13–10.

It took exactly one game for my fearless predictions to become somewhat less fearless.

The secret formula

In my defense, there is a system behind these selections. I cannot reveal the precise formula—largely because the football world is not ready for it—but it prefers the contribution of one U.S. above all others, international players, global marketing rights, radio languages and several other carefully researched factors.

Oh, and stadium beer prices may also be involved.

The theory is that internationally minded franchises will fare better. Teams that recruit outside the traditional American football pipeline, communicate in several languages and recognize that the world extends beyond their local television market receive favorable consideration.

Is that a reliable way to predict NFL games? We are already 0–1, so draw your own conclusions. Do not bet the farm. Do not bet a small garden shed either.

Seattle Seahawks 13, New England Patriots 10

The pick was Patriots. The reality was three fourth-quarter Drake Maye interceptions and another Seattle victory over New England.

The international matchup featured Australian punter Michael Dickson and two organizations with substantial overseas ambitions. Seattle has assembled one of the NFL’s broadest international portfolios, while New England has developed strong connections in Germany and central Europe.

The deciding football factor was not complicated. Maye threw interceptions on New England’s final three possessions, including one in the end zone with 21 seconds remaining. Seattle survived the loss of Sam Darnold, received 187 passing yards from Drew Lock and “won the game with defense”

The secret formula had New England. The secret formula is receiving treatment.

San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams

The NFL arrives at the Melbourne Cricket Ground with two California teams, a Canadian quarterback in San Francisco’s Kurtis Rourke and a Rams organization holding international marketing rights from Australia and New Zealand to Japan, China and South Korea.

Los Angeles has approached the international market as something more than a sightseeing trip with helmets. That earns points in this system.

The football question is whether the Rams can compensate for Aaron Donald’s absence against a San Francisco front that still features Nick Bosa. The 49ers should be able to create pressure, but Los Angeles has the more stable offensive structure and Sean McVay has had months to prepare for this particular chess match.

Pick: Rams

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

Chicago may have the most entertaining international special-teams room in the league. Kicker Cairo Santos was born in Brazil and punter Tory Taylor comes from Australia. The roster also includes Canadian offensive linemen Theo Benedet and Neville Gallimore and South African defensive tackle Jordan van den Berg.

Carolina cannot match those passport numbers, although the Panthers have also built Canadian connections and hold international marketing rights in Germany.

The deciding football factor will be Carolina’s ability to make this an ugly, physical game. If the Panthers control the line of scrimmage and avoid asking their offense to win a track meet, they should squeeze this one out.

Pick: Panthers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

Tampa Bay brings Belize-born defensive lineman Rakeem Nunez-Roches and strong commercial links to Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Cincinnati’s international footprint is more modest, with Canada serving as its principal overseas—or at least over-the-border—market.

This is where the football portion of the formula intervenes. Cincinnati still has Joe Burrow throwing to Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. When those three are healthy, complex analysis can quickly become unnecessary.

The Bengals also benefit from one of the league’s more affordable stadium beers. I will not reveal how important that is, but it is not unimportant.

Pick: Bengals

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

This is a good international matchup. New Orleans holds rights in France and Italy, two countries with long-established domestic American football competitions. Detroit works across Canada, Brazil, Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

The Lions also feature Egypt-born defensive lineman Ahmed Hassanein and American Samoa-born tackle Penei Sewell. Sewell remains one of the clearest examples of how the international and Pacific pathways can produce elite NFL talent.

Detroit was also one of the league’s least-penalized teams last season. That discipline, combined with its strength on both lines, should be far more important than anything buried in my secret spreadsheet.

Pick: Lions

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

Buffalo’s Canadian connection is obvious. Few NFL teams have a neighboring international market sitting directly across a bridge from the stadium. They will even feature the Canadian National Anthem as part of the pregame formalities. Houston, meanwhile, operates in Mexico and has one of the league’s most naturally international cities behind it.

The football factor is Houston’s Ohio State core. C.J. Stroud and tight end Cade Stover already speak the same offensive language, while the Texans have enough talent up front to prevent Buffalo from turning every possession into a Josh Allen improvisational seminar.

Allen will make this uncomfortable. Houston’s defense should make one more decisive play.

Pick: Texans

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Baltimore has cultivated the United Kingdom for years and has Australian-born offensive lineman Daniel Faalele on the roster. Indianapolis counters with Austrian tackle Bernhard Raimann and marketing rights in Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

The Colts also possess a sizeable Notre Dame delegation which aways tips my scales, including quarterback Riley Leonard and guard Quenton Nelson. Somewhere, the echoes are being awakened—and given excellent pass protection.

Picking against Lamar Jackson in Week 1 is not usually recommended. Indianapolis, however, has the offensive line to remain balanced and keep Baltimore from turning the game into a weekly Lamar rescue mission.

Pick: Colts

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is the international heavyweight matchup nobody expected. Cleveland holds rights in Italy and Nigeria. Jacksonville has spent years developing the UK and has added Ireland, while former Welsh rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit remains one of the most interesting crossover athletes in the league.

Then the Buckeye scale breaks. Cleveland has six active Ohio State products, including Denzel Ward, Dawand Jones and Quinshon Judkins. Add the Browns’ defensive front and homegrown Ohio presence, and Jacksonville faces a roster apparently assembled during a drive down Interstate 71.

Deshaun Watson does not have to be brilliant. He merely has to avoid undoing the work of the defense.

Pick: Browns

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

Atlanta has Germany. Pittsburgh has Germany, Mexico, Ireland and a specific connection to Northern Ireland. On the global side, this is not a fair fight. The Steelers have been collecting markets like refrigerator magnets.

The football matchup also favors Pittsburgh’s defense. Atlanta entered the week without the kind of settled quarterback situation anyone would willingly place at the center of a confident prediction. Pittsburgh rarely produces a masterpiece, but it usually understands the assignment.

A few turnovers and enough offense should do it.

Pick: Steelers

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

The Jets and Titans both operate in Ireland and the United Kingdom. Tennessee also has Canadian receiver Elic Ayomanor, while New York features Nigeria-born defensive tackle David Onyemata and another strong Pacific connection through American Samoa.

The Jets’ three-player Ohio State group—Garrett Wilson, Jeremy Ruckert and Josh Myers—provides a useful offensive spine. The more conventional deciding factor is New York’s defense against a Tennessee offense that may need time to find its identity.

Jets games have historically made certainty a dangerous emotion. Nevertheless:

Pick: Jets

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

Arizona works in Canada and Mexico and features Danish center Hjalte Froholdt. The Chargers hold rights in Greece and have Hong Kong-born kicker Cameron Dicker, whose nickname already guarantees him international cult-hero status.

Arizona also leads the NFL in the category that really matters here: Buckeyes. Six Ohio State players reside on the active roster, led by Marvin Harrison Jr. and Paris Johnson Jr.

The football factor is Kyler Murray’s mobility against an aggressive Chargers front. If Arizona protects the ball and turns broken plays into first downs, the Cardinals can frustrate Jim Harbaugh’s team. I think you already know how that works for me but ex Cardinal Justin Pugh’s missionary work in Italia makes the birds a fave in my book.

Pick: Cardinals

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

This is the Global Markets Program Bowl. Miami holds rights in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Spain. Las Vegas operates in Australia, New Zealand, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Germany and the United Arab Emirates.

If international ambition alone won championships, this game would require a neutral site and three national anthems.

The actual deciding factor is Brock Bowers’ absence from the Las Vegas lineup. Removing the Raiders’ most dangerous receiving weapon makes an already difficult offensive assignment considerably harder. Miami does not need fireworks. It needs competence and a few explosive plays. At some point, Fernando Medoza’s Cuban beat will tug at my heartstrings. Just not this weekend.

Pick: Dolphins

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Green Bay has invested heavily in Germany and Ireland, a fitting combination for a franchise whose supporters understand both beer and difficult weather. Irish punter Daniel Whelan gives the Packers a direct international link on the field.

Minnesota has its own UK and Canadian interests and has added more international flavor to its game-day presentation. Under the rules of my formula, not all of that flavor produces points. Again, the details must remain classified.

The football factor is Green Bay’s ability to pressure Carson Wentz without sacrificing coverage. If the Packers force him to hold the ball, the night could become long.

Pick: Packers

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

Philadelphia may be the league’s most visibly international offensive line destination thanks to Australian tackle Jordan Mailata. The Eagles also have Zimbabwe-born defensive back Andrew Mukuba and marketing rights in Australia, New Zealand, Brazil and Ghana.

Washington answers with American Samoa-born linebacker Frankie Luvu, Haiti-born defensive back Mike Sainristil and a developing connection to the United Arab Emirates.

Philadelphia owns the deeper international portfolio. Washington’s deciding football factor is Jayden Daniels. His mobility can neutralize pressure, extend drives and turn a correct defensive call into a 25-yard problem.

This is the upset pick that may look inspired Sunday afternoon and ridiculous by Sunday evening.

Pick: Commanders

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Dallas holds international rights in Mexico, but the active roster offers relatively little international representation. The Giants counter with Canadians Theo Johnson and Jevon Holland, American Samoa-born Francis Mauigoa and Nigerian lineman Basil Okoye.

The football factor may be New York’s defensive front against a Dallas offensive line already missing Tyler Smith, who was “placed on injured reserve following thumb surgery”

Dallas still possesses more established offensive stars. The Giants have the better opportunity to disrupt the game before those stars can take control. Placing a Giant thumb on the scales of this one is Justin Pugh who would be forgiven for thinking more these days about the Bolzano Giants than the Big Apple variety.

Pick: Giants

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Denver’s principal international territory is Mexico. Kansas City has apparently attempted to annex the rest of the map, holding rights in Austria, Germany, Ireland, Mexico, Spain, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

That does not make Patrick Mahomes more dangerous, but he hardly needs the assistance.

Denver’s defense should keep the game close and its Division III success story, guard Quinn Meinerz, earns a special place in the formula. The deciding football factor remains Mahomes and Andy Reid at Arrowhead. Adding Dutchman Thomas Adokoye to the practice squad made this one a lock for me.

Pick: Chiefs

The damage assessment

So there they are: 16 fearless predictions, one of which has already crashed into a wall.

The strongest selections are Cleveland, Arizona, Detroit, Indianapolis and the Jets. The games most likely to embarrass me are Miami–Las Vegas, Tampa Bay–Cincinnati, Green Bay–Minnesota and Chicago–Carolina.

Internationally minded teams should fare better. Ohio State alumni remain extremely valuable. Cheap beer never hurts.

Just remember that Seattle has already exposed one small weakness in the system: the games are still decided by the players