Fearless NFL Week 10 picks: Riding a 13–2 hot streak, tempting fate and trusting the Browns again

Week 9 finished 13–2, raising the season record to 77–58–1. This is the sort of result that causes a man to check the batteries in his calculator, then hide the calculator before it remembers who owns it. The only misses were New England and, because tradition matters, Cleveland.

The painful Week 9 review

Thirteen correct picks sounds less impressive when one remembers that the Browns led New Orleans late, reached overtime and then found a fresh, artisanal way to lose 23–22. Cleveland football is not a sport so much as an immersive exhibit. I have been asking what could go wrong since 1964; the Browns keep treating it as a request for proposals.

New England was the other miss, losing 45–27 to Green Bay. Every other selection came home, including Cincinnati in Madrid, the Giants on the Jameis bus and Buffalo on Monday night. A 13–2 week deserves humility, mainly because Week 10 has already seen the number and is warming up a folding chair.

Week 10 predictions

Washington Commanders at New York Giants

The Giants carry a German connection, while Washington looks toward the United Arab Emirates. It is a compact summit between engineering and air conditioning, held in New Jersey because diplomacy has limits. The football factor is the Giants’ 5–2–1 record against Washington at 2–5–1, plus a defense that held Philadelphia to 11 points. New York is favored by 2.5. The Jameis bus remains in service; exact route information is still being withheld from passengers.

Pick: New York Giants

New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions in Munich

This is Amon-Ra St. Brown’s homecoming, and the sun god could hardly have chosen a better address. His mother is from Germany, he has German citizenship, speaks the language and has dreamed of playing there since childhood. At FC Bayern Munich Stadium, the Detroit receiver may be the first visiting player who can correct the public-address announcer’s grammar before scoring a touchdown. The Patriots have their own serious German following, so Munich gets two committed international teams, one enormous pretzel and no neutral corner. The football factor is ball security. Jared Goff has 15 touchdown passes and only two interceptions; New England has a minus-11 turnover differential. Detroit is favored by three, scores nearly 28 per game and brings Jahmyr Gibbs’ 847 rushing yards. St. Brown has 61 catches for 657 yards, and if he reaches the end zone the celebration may require subtitles in German, French and Honolulu Blue.

Pick: Detroit Lions

Kansas City Chiefs at Atlanta Falcons

Kansas City has enough international territory to open consulates; Atlanta has Germany and the advantage of not needing a connecting flight. This is global reach versus carry-on efficiency. The football factor is Kansas City at 6–2 after beating the Jets 35–12, while Atlanta is 3–6 after Madrid supplied a 34–17 reminder that tapas cannot cover Ja’Marr Chase. The Chiefs are favored by 3.5. Patrick Mahomes travels with fewer restrictions than most diplomatic bags.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs

Houston Texans at Cleveland Browns

Houston brings Mexico; Cleveland brings Italy, Nigeria and enough emotional baggage to require its own customs lane. This is the only international delegation whose supporters may declare hope as a controlled substance. The football factor says Houston just scored 44 against the Chargers and is favored by 4.5. The other factor says Cleveland is 5–4, at home and has already exhausted several impossible methods of defeat. Surely the supply is finite. I am taking the Browns again because getting off now would make the previous 62 years look impulsive.

Pick: Cleveland Browns

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

Minnesota looks to Canada and the United Kingdom; Green Bay works Germany, Ireland and Britain. The North Atlantic is fully represented, although nobody has yet claimed responsibility for November in Wisconsin. The football factor is quarterback momentum. Green Bay scored 45 in New England, while Minnesota managed six points against Buffalo and has gone shopping for familiar help. The Packers are favored by 3.5. Lambeau is a poor place to rediscover an offense unless it was left under a seat last winter.

Pick: Green Bay Packers

Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans

Jacksonville’s long relationship with Britain meets Tennessee’s Irish ambitions. It is the sort of Anglo-Irish conversation that usually requires careful wording and a second round. The football factor is Jacksonville’s 6–2 record and a point differential of plus 108 against Tennessee at 1–7. The Jaguars are favored by 9.5 after winning 33–10 in Baltimore. London may claim them eventually; Nashville would settle for the final whistle.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Miami’s international map stretches across Latin America, Spain and Britain. Indianapolis concentrates on Austria, Germany and Switzerland. Miami wins the passport count; the Colts win the ability to point toward Munich and say they were practically there. The football factor is that somebody must win. Miami is 1–7, Indianapolis 2–7, and the Colts are favored by 3.5 in a game with a total of 38.5. That is less an over-under than a suggested speed limit.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

Carolina has Germany; New Orleans has France and Italy. The menu is excellent, the records are both 3–5 and nobody should ask how the sausage was made. The football factor is New Orleans returning home after the overtime win over Cleveland. The Saints are favored by 1.5, which suggests the market studied both teams and requested a smaller font. Home field breaks the tie.

Pick: New Orleans Saints

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Buffalo owns the Canadian border; the Jets work Ireland and the United Kingdom. It is a transatlantic argument with one side holding a 7–1 record and the other holding several brochures. The football factor is Buffalo’s defense, which held Minnesota to six points, and a running game that let James Cook carry the luggage Monday night. The Bills are favored by 7.5 against a 2–7 Jets team. Customs should wave them through.

Pick: Buffalo Bills

Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders

Seattle’s reach runs through Canada, Australia, New Zealand and Europe. Las Vegas can offer Mexico, Britain and a city where international visitors routinely misplace both time and money. At last, a matchup that understands this column. The football factor is Seattle’s defense after holding Arizona to three points. The Seahawks are favored by 3.5, while Las Vegas is 4–5 and has spent too much of the season asking its offense to win bar fights. Seattle travels.

Pick: Seattle Seahawks

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

The Rams maintain a global map across Asia, Australia, Mexico, New Zealand and the Middle East. Arizona has Canada and Mexico. The Cardinals have packed sensibly; the Rams have brought a trade delegation. The football factor is Los Angeles’ defense and Arizona’s minus-77 point differential. The Rams are favored by 9.5 after winning in Washington, while the Cardinals scored three in Seattle. This is not a border dispute; it is a talent dispute.

Pick: Los Angeles Rams

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Both clubs understand Mexico, and San Francisco adds Britain to the conversation. Dallas remains America’s Team, which is a domestic title with unusually strict renewal requirements. The football factor is San Francisco at 7–1 with a plus-79 point differential. Dallas can score, which explains the week’s highest total at 55.5, but the 49ers are favored by 3.5 and arrive with fewer visible holes. Take San Francisco and keep the calculator nearby.

Pick: San Francisco 49ers

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Pittsburgh’s Irish ties meet Cincinnati’s growing international profile after the Bengals treated Madrid like a very large home office. Spain has barely finished sweeping up the orange confetti. The football factor is Cincinnati’s four-game winning streak and an offense that has scored at least 30 in each of them. Both teams are 6–2, but the Bengals are favored by 3.5 and Joe Burrow is making geography look optional.

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

The Chargers bring Greece; Baltimore brings Britain. Monday night offers souvlaki, tea and a combined record that may require something stronger than either. The football factor is Los Angeles at 0–8 after allowing Houston 44 points. Baltimore is only 4–5 and the quarterback situation has been an adventure, but the Ravens are favored by 4.5. The Chargers have made every opponent’s problems feel temporary.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens

Final warning

These predictions are for entertainment, international understanding and the organised ridicule of their author. They are not betting advice. There are easier ways to lose money: buy stadium beer, exchange dollars at the airport, order a commemorative Munich pretzel or hand the Browns a one-point lead with two minutes remaining. Week 9 went 13–2, which only means the banana peel has had extra time to position itself.