An 18-game NFL season is coming: Here’s how the league can keep the balance right
As the NFL moves toward an 18-game season in the next few years, the NBA’s tanking-shaped stretch run offers a recent example of what can happen late in long seasons — and what the league may need to manage to keep games competitive
By Jonathan Jones
There is little question that the next collective bargaining agreement between the NFL and its players will include an 18th regular season game.
That change is at least two years away — 2028 at the absolute earliest, 2031 at the latest — and it will come with considerable back and forth between the sides. The league will rid itself of one of three preseason games. A second bye week will be non-negotiable from the player perspective. The financial windfall, which is well north of an extra billion dollars in revenue, is obvious, but how the pie is split will be at the center of the discussion.
| Lever | What changes | How it helps maintain balance |
|---|---|---|
| 18th game | Adds one regular-season game to the schedule | Creates more inventory and revenue, but puts added pressure on player health and late-season game quality |
| Second bye week | Builds in an additional week of rest during the season | Helps offset fatigue and injury risk as the schedule expands |
| Reduced preseason | Cuts the preseason from three games to two | Shifts one game that matters less off the calendar as the regular season grows |
| International expansion | Helps the league get to 16 international games, allowing all 32 teams to play abroad each season | Supports global growth while making the added game part of a broader league strategy |
| Schedule formula | Forces the league to decide whether the 18th game is divisional or non-divisional | Shapes competitive balance, rivalries and how meaningful late-season games remain |
| Playoff seeding changes | Could reduce the automatic reward division winners receive in the playoff bracket | Gives more teams a reason to keep pushing late in the season instead of resting starters |
There’s a hidden challenge, however, to the expected increase in regular season games the league has quietly been assessing for years. And what we just saw in the NBA’s regular season is instructive for the NFL in its expansion plans. The more games that are played between the haves and have-nots will result in more low-leverage games, thus diluting the premier live television product in the world.
