Mahnen’s Week 3 NFL picks: Fearless and Increasingly Questionable NFL Week 3 Predictions
I have reached the point where using these picks as betting advice would not merely be unwise…it would deprive ridicule of its highest purpose. Week 2 finished 5-11, taking the season record to 12-20. A coin toss would beat my system hands down.
The secret weighting system still rewards international players, global marketing rights, multilingual broadcasts and even a preponderance of Italian influence. The theory remains that internationally minded teams will fare better. The evidence has requested more time.
There are easier ways to lose money than following these predictions. Airport currency desks, hotel minibars and stadium beer all work faster and provide a receipt. These picks should be used for one purpose only: ridiculing their author.
The painful Week 2 review
The five correct selections were Philadelphia, Cleveland, Las Vegas, San Francisco and Kansas City. Cleveland was especially awkward. The football evidence pointed to Tampa Bay, but I chose the Browns because of Buckeyes, affordable beer and stubbornness. They won 23-19. When bad logic produces the right answer, a forecaster should accept the applause before the audit committee arrives.
The other 11 games were less subtle. Detroit conceded 41 points. Pittsburgh scored three. Atlanta lost 34-3 at home. Baltimore turned a 14-3 lead into a 24-17 defeat. Arizona lost 31-7, and the Giants followed my endorsement with a 28-6 loss in which Jaxson Dart injured his knee on the opening drive. The formula did not so much miss the target as inconvenience spectators in the next county.
It has been recalibrated. This mostly means I changed the password and moved one column slightly to the left. Onward to Week 3.
Week 3 predictions
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers
Green Bay opened the season with an Irish punter, a Canadian defensive back, a German kicker and an Australian tight end in its wider roster group. Atlanta counters with Canadian offensive lineman Matthew Bergeron and defensive back Sydney Brown, plus Nigeria-born Samson Ebukam. The Packers win the customs queue, which may be the only queue that matters to this formula.
The football factor is Michael Penix Jr.’s return for his first start in 10 months. That should lift Atlanta after the five-turnover disaster against Carolina, but it is a severe assignment at Lambeau with A.J. Terrell Jr. now on injured reserve. Green Bay needed overtime against the Jets, yet it remains the steadier team.
Pick: Green Bay Packers
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
Kansas City and Miami each opened with four qualifying international players. The Chiefs add a huge global-markets advantage across Europe and Mexico, while Miami can point to Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Spain. This is an excellent brochure contest. Unfortunately for Miami, brochures are rarely asked to defend third-and-eight.
The football factor is Patrick Mahomes. He threw for 382 yards in the overtime win over Indianapolis. Miami is 0-2 and managed 13 points against San Francisco. The Kansas City defense has been inconsistent, but the difference at quarterback is large enough to survive it.
Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
Carolina’s opening roster included eight internationally connected players from Canada, Germany, Ghana, Japan, Nigeria, Taiwan and England. Cleveland had none under the same definition. This is the largest international landslide of the week and a distressing development for those of us who have spent two Sundays forcing the Browns into the model.
The football factor is Carolina’s improved pass protection. Bryce Young threw for 287 yards and three touchdowns in the 34-3 win at Atlanta, and the Panthers allowed pressure on only 15.4 percent of their dropbacks. The Browns did manage to make life miserable for erstwhile teammate Baker Mayfield, but Carolina arrives with the better-functioning offense.
Pick: Carolina Panthers
Tennessee Titans at New York Giants
The Giants carry one of the league’s broadest international roster groups, with links to American Samoa, Australia, Canada, Nigeria and England. Tennessee answers with Canadian receiver Elic Ayomanor and Samoa-born Laki Tasi, who developed in Australia. The passport vote is comfortably New York.
The football factor is the Giants’ quarterback emergency. Jaxson Dart is out for an extended period after the knee injury in Los Angeles, while Tennessee pushed Philadelphia to the final minute and Cam Ward ran for two touchdowns. The formula counts passports; it does not yet repair knees.
Pick: Tennessee Titans
New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars
Jacksonville’s group includes Australian tackle Daniel Faalele, German lineman Kilian Zierer and Nigeria-born defensive tackle Ruke Orhorhoro. New England counters with Australian punter Mitch Wishnowsky and German tackle Lorenz Metz. The Jaguars take the international point by the narrowest possible margin.
The football factor is New England’s defense. The Patriots held Pittsburgh to three points and scored a defensive touchdown, while Jacksonville produced only 13 in Denver. Trevor Lawrence has the talent to reverse the pattern, but New England currently looks more likely to create the decisive short field.
Pick: New England Patriots
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
The Chargers opened with seven international players, including connections to Australia, Canada, Germany, Haiti and Hong Kong. Buffalo had three, all tied to Canada or England. The secret system loves Los Angeles here. It has also been asked to watch the games occasionally.
The football factor is Josh Allen against a Chargers team that is 0-2. Buffalo scored 41 against Detroit, while Justin Herbert threw two interceptions in the loss to Las Vegas. Seven passports cannot block Allen when the pocket breaks down.
Pick: Buffalo Bills
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
The Jets began with six internationally connected players, all with African or Pacific roots, while Detroit’s group stretched from American Samoa and Egypt to Nigeria, Canada and Tonga. This is a strong international matchup even before the league’s marketing territories are fed into the machinery.
The football factor is Detroit’s offense at home. Jared Goff played well in Buffalo despite a weakened line, and the Lions can still score with Jahmyr Gibbs and their skill group. The concern is a defense that has surrendered more than 800 yards since halftime of Week 1. Against a Jets offense that scored 17 in an overtime loss, Detroit should just about outrun its own problems.
Pick: Detroit Lions
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
Houston opened with five international players, including Italian tackle Max Pircher, Germany-born tight end Marlin Klein and Jamaica-born pass rusher Danielle Hunter. Indianapolis has Austrian tackle Bernhard Raimann and Nigeria-born Roy Mbaeteka. The formula awards Houston the passports and Pircher the compulsory Italian-name bonus.
The football factor is offensive competence. Houston is 0-2, scored six points against Cincinnati and may again be without Nico Collins. Indianapolis put 30 on Kansas City and took the Chiefs to overtime. The Colts have shown a much clearer route to points.
Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders
Washington’s roster group reaches American Samoa, Gabon, Germany, Haiti and Trinidad and Tobago. Seattle counters with Australian punter Michael Dickson, New Zealand-born running back George Holani and Puerto Rico-born center Federico Maranges, plus one of the league’s largest collections of global marketing territories.
The football factor is Washington’s change at quarterback. Jayden Daniels is out with a dislocated left elbow, leaving Marcus Mariota to face the 2-0 defending champions. Seattle may get Sam Darnold back, but Drew Lock has already produced 422 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in two wins. Either option is preferable to Washington’s current situation.
Pick: Seattle Seahawks
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati brings Canadian running back Chase Brown and Japan-born receiver Andrei Iosivas. Pittsburgh answers with Australian punter Cameron Johnston and German linebacker Julius Welschof. The international section is a 2-2 draw, so the formula has threatened to consult beer prices.
The football factor is Cincinnati’s defense against a Pittsburgh attack that managed three points in New England. The Bengals held Houston to six and are 2-0. Joe Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase do not need a masterpiece if their defense keeps giving them this much room.
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Arizona’s international line room includes Denmark’s Hjalte Froholdt, Austria’s Valentin Senn and Canadian Isaiah Adams. San Francisco counters with Belgian punter Corliss Waitman, Canadian quarterback Kurtis Rourke, Liberia-born Sam Okuayinonu and Mexican lineman Isaac Alarcon. The 49ers edge the count and the geographic spread.
The football factor is the gap between last week’s offenses. San Francisco beat Miami 35-13 behind an exceptionally efficient Brock Purdy performance. Arizona produced seven points in a home loss to Seattle. Divisional games can become strange, but this would need to become multilingual experimental theatre.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Minnesota’s main roster connection is Australian punter Brett Thorson, backed by commercial rights in Canada and the United Kingdom. Tampa Bay fields Belize-born Rakeem Nunez-Roches and German tackle Paul Rubelt, and works across Germany, Austria and Switzerland. Tampa wins the international count, at least until special teams enters the conversation.
The football factor is Minnesota’s defense, which held Chicago to three points. Kyler Murray has cleared concussion protocol and is set to return for the 2-0 Vikings. Tampa Bay is 0-2, and Baker Mayfield now has to solve a defense that made the Bears look as if the forward pass had been introduced without warning.
Pick: Minnesota Vikings
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
Las Vegas combines players from Guinea, Canada and Japan with international rights stretching from Mexico and the United Kingdom to Australia, New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates. New Orleans counters with Canada, Jamaica and Northern Ireland on the roster, plus markets in France and Italy. The formula has declared this sophisticated and refused further questions.
The football factor is Tyler Shough and the Saints’ home opener. Shough leads the league in passing yards and just guided a comeback in Baltimore. Las Vegas is a deserved 2-0 under Kirk Cousins, but New Orleans has already shown it can survive close games against strong opponents.
Pick: New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
This one is actually being played at the Maracana in Rio de Janeiro. Baltimore also brings players born in Canada, Greece, Panama and England, while Dallas has Jamaican and Nigerian practice-squad connections. If the international formula cannot become excited by a Ravens-Cowboys game in Brazil, it should be replaced by a less moody spreadsheet.
The football factor is Baltimore’s running game against a Dallas defense that gave up 28 points to the Giants in Week 1. Dak Prescott threw four touchdowns against Washington and now owns the Cowboys’ career record, so Baltimore cannot repeat its second-half collapse in New Orleans. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry should control enough of the game to keep Prescott watching.
Pick: Baltimore Ravens
Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos
The Rams opened with links to Australia, Canada and Zimbabwe, plus seven international marketing territories across Asia, Oceania, Mexico and the Middle East. Denver’s roster group includes an Australian punter, a Jamaica-born tackle and a Nigerian edge defender. The Rams win the global reach category by a comfortable flight itinerary.
The football factor is the Rams’ response to Melbourne. Matthew Stafford threw for 327 yards and Los Angeles held the Giants to six points in Week 2. Denver is always awkward at altitude and did beat Jacksonville, but the Rams looked like themselves again once they returned home and found the correct body clock.
Pick: Los Angeles Rams
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
This is the week’s heavyweight international roster matchup. Chicago opened with nine players connected to American Samoa, Australia, Brazil, Canada and South Africa. Philadelphia had six from Australia, Cameroon, Kenya, Nigeria and Zimbabwe. Somewhere, a customs officer is requesting a depth chart.
The football factor is Chicago’s quarterback and scoring problem. Caleb Williams left the Minnesota game with a hamstring injury, and the Bears managed only three points. Philadelphia is 2-0 and Jalen Hurts just produced another late winning drive. Even if Williams recovers quickly, the Eagles have too many ways to punish an offense that cannot stay on schedule.
Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
These predictions are not betting advice, life advice or particularly persuasive football advice. There are easier ways to lose money than using my picks, and most of them come with complimentary snacks. Use this column for no reason other than to ridicule its author. If a pick wins, credit the secret international formula. If it loses, it was obviously satire. After 5-11, this is less a disclaimer than a public service.
